fahrenheit451:348

It's easy, often too easy to get caught up in the hyperbole and strident faux-rhetoric that accompanies what passes for war these days.

Routine, indiscriminate usage of emotive language and graphic imagery, in the end do not enhance a particular narrative, they overwhelm it.

The US / EUNATO engineered regional imbroglio emanating from what is still left of the sovereign,independent nation state of Syria underlines the old adage about chickens coming home to roost.

The ruling metropolitan elites sojourning in their western ivory towers do in fact have a low tolerance for when things get, shall we say, a tad more squeamish than they had anticipated let alone planned for.

They always invariably make the same miscalculation ,they always invariably end up shoving their collective heads up their own asses and hope that their specious pseudo-moralistic pronouncements and irritatingly middle class superficial hand wringing shows concern for the orphans,widows,the aged .etc. who are ineluctably maimed and butchered and eviscerated and become an endless stream of online content for the on-going pornographic installation art exhibition that is a world run by the failing ruling elites.

A Century on from the imposition by the triumphant Allies of the Sykes -Picot delineation of the defeated Ottoman Empire's vassal territories have a lot to answer for.Slicing and dicing previously coherent contiguous ethno-linguistic entities into a myriad of contradictory and confusing irrational new entities remains the very epitome of Western imperialist stupidity.

The insane / absurdist revival of Ottoman delusions of grandeur by Erdogan and his coterie of oligarchs and gangsters in the guise of a modern, developing Turkey,are a tragedy of immense historic importance that is hastening inexorably toward their self-created and realised demise.Sooner rather than later.Whether they cleanse all of Syria's north east of terrorist Kurds or not and if the buffer zone and relocation of 2 million Syrian war refugees eventuates or not.

The following gleaned from, Focus Economics tell you what you need to know about Turkey.

Turkey Economic Outlook

October 1, 2019

The economy shrank again in Q2, although less severely than in the first. A slump in fixed investment and a fall in private consumption, amid elevated unemployment, inflation and currency weakness, led the contraction. For its part, the external sector’s performance improved, although this was only largely due to weak domestic demand. Turning to the third quarter, the economy is expected to have shrunk once more: Industrial production fell again in July, although it did so at the softest pace in nearly a year. Moreover, August’s manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory, suggesting that the sector is not yet out of the woods. Similarly, retail sales contracted again in July, while private sector credit growth was negligible in the same month. More positively, the Central Bank’s second large rate cut in September ought to boost credit growth and support economic activity.

Turkey Economic Growth

The economy is expected to recover towards the end of this year and into next year on the back of looser monetary policy and a supportive base effect. However, geopolitical tensions and currency volatility remain downside risks, while still high unemployment is likely to weigh on household consumption. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to shrink 0.8% in 2019. Next year, however, our panel projects economic growth of 2.2%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Turkey Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	76.7	77.7	78.7	79.8	80.8
GDP per capita (USD)	12,386	12,026	10,898	10,805	10,542
GDP (USD bn)	950	934	858	862	852

During the same period, the official exchange rate of the Turkish Lira to the USD rose from 2.15 to 1 to 3.79 to 1.
A national economy in recession paying practically double for its fuel & energy imports  (all denominated globally in USD) ,let alone all the other stuff Turkey itself uses but doesn't manufacture domestically.Tanks,Guns,Aircraft,Munitions of all kinds.

Turkey is probably in a more economically parlous state at the start of this Syrian misadventure than Japan was back in 1941 when it attacked Pearl Harbour.

Now, go figure.

fahrenheit451:347

Sudetenland 2.0

Turkish President Erdogan has given the rest of the international community notice of his intention to order a full scale military incursion into North-eastern Syria in order to establish a buffer-zone contiguous with the Turkish border.

US forces currently in that area are due to vacate it leaving their erstwhile SDF /Kurdish allies on their own to face the imminent Turkish invasion.

Military invasions of countries with which the invaders are not at war is in breach of international law.Not that International Law counts for very much in the current derangement paradigm in which the world finds itself.

The very presence of US,UK,French,German,Australian ,Canadian and Turkish forces inside Syria is itself in breach of all diplomatic conventions, rules and international laws.
The much referenced Westphalian system whereby nations respect each others sovereignty and territorial integrity has long been a convenient diplomatic fiction for almost as long as The Treaty of Westphalia of 1648 itself has been in existence. That particular treaty brought to a close what  future historians would refer to as The Thirty Years War on the continent of Europe. Its foundational principles just so much existential pie in the sky.

The anti-Trump driven rhetoric over the US withdrawal from the region about to be invaded by Turkey is about as specious as it gets in Washington DC. The Kurds, everyone who hates President Trump says, have been thrown under the proverbial bus and that they'll be subjected genocide by the invading Turks.Even if it were remotely akin to the truth, frankly my dear, we shouldn't give a damn.

The really big and imminently globally catastrophic imbroglio in that region is no longer Syria ,it's the Yemen.Of course the two are intertwined at a strategic level, involving most of the same state actors in both theatres such as Saudi Arabia (your friendly neighbourhood financiers of Islamist terrorism) ,Iran ,the US and of course Israel who basically want to instigate their own arcane scriptural Armageddon asap.

And you thought Brexit was a sh**show.

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The track record of the United States and its NATO satrapies' foreign military and political adventurism is as follows:-
Yugoslavia ,failed. Iraq (twice) failed.Afghanistan,failed.Libya,failed.Syria..failed.

Mad-dog Erdogan's imperialistic hubris and mismanaged economic policies have left Turkey facing the perfect storm of impending fiscal implosion and recession. Aircraft and bombs and boots on the ground in neighbouring Syria costs money,lots of it and in US Dollars, of which the Treasury in Ankara has less of with each passing day.

Idlib is the last redoubt of what remains of both ISIS and AlQaeda forces on the ground in Syria.The mutually antagonistic islamic terrorist organisations continue to knife each in other in the back with unrestrained alacrity and commendable homicidal fervour. Like rats tied up in a sack,it would be expedient and best all round just to leave then to go at it;the outcome being far fewer rats to deal with and in much poorer shape once you open the sack.

Many thousands  of "rats" have already scarpered,shaving off their pietistic facial bum-fluff and donning the burqa and niqab to give a semblance of femininity as they scuttle back ( with our own domestic security services standing idly by ) to the immigrant,unassimilated ghettoes of Brussels,Paris,Berlin,London and many other safe houses in dozens of major cities all across Europe.

The United States ( and to a lesser extent its major NATO bootlickers ) has been skilfully politically cozened by two diametrically opposed Religious regimes in the region- Israel and Saudi Arabia into conducting  a badly flawed and strategically inept campaign in Syria that has left the Syrian government and its allies within striking distance of a final victory on the battlefield.

The sideshows to the main event - western backed and orchestrated regime change in Syria - such as the Turkish campaign of ethnic cleansing of Kurdish populated ares bordering Turkey and the opportunity for localised revanchism among various tribes against other tribes ( pro and anti-Assad according to how the wind blows )  has only added to the incoherence and fragility of any putative outcome let alone meaningful resolution of the Syrian imbroglio as a whole.

The UK ,France and Germany ( with interlocking disputes and instability afflicting their own backyards ) are first among the shroud-wavers and virtue signallers raising the all too familiar cry of " humanitarian catastrophe " whilst the slavering bloodthirsty Vultures ,Israel and Saudi Arabia continue circling the carrion they hope to be feasting on.

Syria,Russia and Iran meanwhile have a job to finish.

fahrenheit451:276

Erdogan,that erstwhile ravening Turkish warmonger looks as though he's about to hit the existential jackpot in Syria.

From funding,harbouring and arming ISIS/Daesh as well as Al Qaeda affiliates, and his subsequent de-facto annexation of sovereign Syrian territory through to building walls,watchtowers and entire military supply bases and depots inside Syria and deploying a commensurate invading Army,Erdogan has doubled down like the chronic high risk gambler and demagogic chancer that he is.

And its all begun dropping apart in spectacular fashion.All his so-called NATO friends are deserting him and his allies have set a trap underneath him. The Turkish military haven't somehow heroically liberated their ethnic kinfolk from the clutches,as they see it,of Assad,but have been sucked ever deeper into a bottomless quagmire with no prospect of withdrawal.

Credit in fair measure,for helping to bring out these dramatic changes in the circumstances on the ground in Syria must go to President Trump's administration for its forthright dealings in matters of trade and commerce with the perceived abuses perpetrated by a number of its major trading competitors. Amongst the many nations targeted by these harsher tariffs is the export to the US of Turkish steel and aluminum.

The US has also gotten itself into an intra-NATO row over the sale of aircraft and missile systems to Turkey or rather the withholding of such deals at this present moment in time.

Neither of which has improved Erdogan's innately obstreperous demeanour.

And to cap it all the value of the Turkish Lira has depreciated catastrophically vis a vis the US Dollar on international markets.At the start of 2018,it was trrading at 3.76 Lira to the US Dollar by the start of August the rate had increased to 5.49 to the dollar.National economies cannot withstand 50% depreciations of their currencies against the Dollar.

Technically currency depreciations would be great for exports,but in Turkey's case domestic inflation,massive economic displacement and increased unemployment all begin to add up to Erdogan cutting nobody else's throat but his own in Syria.

Afrin, Idlib, Manbij: the entire paranoid scenario vis a vis the Kurds and their militia groups costs Turkey more in fuel and munitions and all the other logistics that have to be paid for in US Dollars.Which in turn have to be borrowed on International money markets against the sale of Turkish government bonds that in turn become increasingly junk as the screws tighten.

Ain't Capitalism wonderful ?  Schadenfreude is trading well these days.

fahrenheit451:253

Not being content with attacking Syrian military facilities a few days previously, Israel went and repeated its aggression this time against several Iranian bases that are on Syrian territory.Their excuse was that Iranian forces had fired at Israeli territory first.
if anyone had any lingering doubts as to whether or not any State really gave a genuine damn about International Law and the prevailing norms of diplomacy,then this latest Israeli outrage ought to put such jejeune notions finally to bed.
Whatever vestiges of pretend-authority any notional Internationally accepted and binding rule of law is meant to have has been firmly consigned to the naive daydreams and unattainable aspirations of those who pine after some kind of brotherhood of man. Otiose cant and vacuous platitudes based on their respective DNA to western liberal democratic values,which themselves are of course the surviving chimera of such truly awful events of human history as the American and French revolutions.
Bismarckian Realpolitik is back in vogue. All well and good.Assuming of course that the dimwits, especially those in Washington's State Department and their institutional rivals at The Pentagon actually are able to discern and implement such a cunning strategy.
The Israeli MSM platform Haaretz reports on the construction by the US with French collaboration of a military base near Manbij in Syria and the threats made to the US for doing so by Erdogan's Turkey.I don't recall this potboiler of what is a growing classic Mexican standoff ever being referred to or taken notice of at the UN,either at Security Council or General Assembly level.
So,having planned,nurtured,financed,trained,armed & logistically supported the hydra-headed Arab Spring popular uprisings and having watched as they went  "south" one by inexorable one, the US administration rears up on its hindlegs and accuses Iran of being the source of instability in the region! This Punch & Judy show suits Israel's atavistic urges that underpin and motivate Netanyahu's faux-demagougery and pathetic bellicose antics.
Erdogan's Turkey - and let us hope that he might be defeated in the forthcoming Turkish general election- is a Treaty bound member of NATO and aspires to become a member of the European Union.Clearly reality is on the blink,on both counts.
And the legitimate Syrian government fights on with the invaluable assistance of its allies- Russia,Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah and elements of the Palestinian diaspora in Syria.The Kurds though,right in the middle of all this are,no surprise getting royally shafted by all and sundry.That was inevitable.
As is Schadenfreude.

fahrenheit451:244

There is no recognised,valid international agreement that has magically granted authorisation nor any shred of legal legitimacy to the activities of the US.UK,Turkey or France whose forces are currently ensconced on the territory of the sovereign state of Syria. The only foreign forces who are incontestably legally,legitimately assisting the Syrian government are those of Russia,Iran and the forces of Hezbollah.
That the corporate MSM in the UK choose to announce the death of a British forces soldier in Syria whilst serving with US Special forces does nothing to alter or mitigate the brazen violation of all manner of International Law and norms governing the relationship between sovereign states who are at peace with one another.
Mad dog Erdogan's instigated  blitzkrieg against predominantly indigenous Kurdish dominated provinces bordering Turkey are a major case in point.Turkey's NATO membership further deepens an already insoluble imbroglio. The Kurds under attack were until a few weeks ago a strategic ally of the US ( and France and Germany ) in the hydra-headed Syrian civil war scenario.
Now it seems that France has declared its renewed support of the Kurds much to the consternation of Erdogan whose vainglorious territorial ambitions remain unabated by this latest complication.
And given the diplomatic spat initiated by the UK's beleaguered,ailing,minority Tory regime against Russia over an as yet unresolved attempted assassination of a former Russia traitor on British soil,the  climate of international relations has entered a period of deep depression.
The Washington Deep State continues to remorselessly tighten its grip on what remains of Trump's avowed non-interventionist stance that helped him get into the Oval Office.
The various jihadist factions are engaged in a variety of interconnected blood feuds that have come back to life after their collective failure to achieve anything more lasting than their own infamy.And two ISIS butchers- bizarrely nicknamed  "The Beatles"- because of their british accents, whose UK citizenship was revoked are in the hands of the mainly Kurdish SDF anti-Assad forces who don't seem capable of simply giving these two the coup-de-grace.
And so it goes.Turkey is appointing its own governors to administer the territory it has annexed in its avowedly racist,anti-Kurdish blitzkrieg,which if nothing else has spooked the US and UK into an embarrassing omerta,all their supposed international diplomatic muscle rendered useless,except of course in their lunatic,hybrid warfare out-of-theatre assault on Russia.
As someone else has already opined, we could indeed be heading into a Nuclear 1914 scenario.
Duck and cover ain't going to help.

fahrenheit451:236

On February 15,the US secretary of State,Tillerson met with Turkey's Foreign Minister to discuss the current burgeoning imbroglio following Erdogan's launching of a blitzkrieg against the Syrian Kurdish enclave of Afrin.

This what the pair of venal,posturing petomaines of international diplomacy and apprentices of Realpolitik came up with as a statement at the conclusion of their hastily arranged rendezvous:-
“Turkey and the United States reaffirm their commitment to the preservation of the territorial integrity and national unity of Syria. To this end, we will decisively stand against all attempts to create faits accomplis and demographic changes within Syria, and are dedicated to coordination on transition and stabilization of Syria.

“Recognizing the fact that there can only be a political solution to the Syrian crisis, and that it requires a viable political transition, Turkey and the United States agree to intensify their cooperation to bring about this result within the framework of established parameters, namely the UNSC Resolution 2254, and through the Geneva process.”

The US and its errant or otherwise compliant satrapies are present inside the territory of the sovereign state of Syria without the permission of the legitimate government of Syria.

It's what used to be called an " invasion " ; such an action was customarily undertaken as an integral part of what used to be called   declaring  " War ". Not that any country has actually declared war or anything else against the sovereign nation State of Syria.

No,not at all,the US and its NATO/EU lackey running dogs are simply there inside Syria on their own cognisance.They are ,minus all the carnage,war crimes and needless mayhem, trespassing.

Russia and Iran and elements of the Lebanese Hezbollah movement,au contraire are assisting the legitimate government of Syria at its request
.
Clearly Tillerson and his Turkish glove-puppet have adopted the Humpty Dumpty Weltanschauhung that words mean precisely what they want them to mean,no more and no less.

So; accusations of putative war crimes,genocide,ethnic cleansing,unprovoked aggression against a non-belligerent country that hasn't expressed any hostility towards the USNATOEU aside,we are left where we began; lost in a labyrinth.

The Syria Kurds ,part of the anti-government SDF have apparently concluded an agreement with the goverment to send its forces into the Afrin enclave in order to counter the Turkish menace who are in turn supported on the ground by the FSA etc and so forth,ad nauseam,ad infinitum.

fahrenheit451:229

The following was gleaned from @TheRegionOrg , an open letter from a retinue of leading academics headed by the venerable Noam Chomsky  wrote -

" We, the undersigned academics and human rights activists, insist that the leaders of Russia, Iran, and the U.S. ensure that the sovereignty of Syrian borders is not breached by Turkey and that the people of Afrin in Syria, be allowed to live in peace.

Afrin, whose population is predominantly Kurdish, is one of the most stable and secure regions in Syria. With very little international aid, Afrin has taken in so many Syrian refugees in the last five years that its population has doubled to 400,000. Afrin is now surrounded by enemies: Turkish-supported jihadi groups, al Qaeda, and Turkey.

Turkish president Erdogan has threatened to attack the U.S. military’s Kurdish partners – the Kurdish YPG or People’s Protection Units – with which the US has been allied against ISIS. Turkey accuses the YPG of being “terrorists”..."

And there you have it;the cri-de-coeur of petty bourgeois,metropolitan elitist intellectuals down the ages whenever some serious shit starts hitting the fan. Their response is a predetermined litany of otiose cant and impotent,vacuous platitudes.

Thousands  upon thousands of " innocent " civilians as well as culpable combatants will die,mostly needlessly, in so far as their deaths will not significantly impact the tides of war,nor any future,putative resolution of the present Syrian imbroglio.

Having opened the proverbial Pandora's Box ,the US neocon foreign policy /military hawks and their european NATO lickspittle,toadying satrapies are now making a show of wringing their hands,gnashing their teeth and rending their garments at the unfolding of  the entirely forseeable,predictable consequences of their own actions.

Who is bombing who in Syria /Iraq and more importantly, to what purpose? Answers on a postcard please to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue ,closing date for entries is anytime this century,if we're lucky.

Having brutally raped Syria's sovereign territorial integrity, the US together with its troupe of loathsome,sloping-forehead enforcers, established military bases,funded,armed,trained,directed and assisted ISIS,Al Qaeda,Uncle Tom Cobbley and all, in their various and contradictory terrorist insurgenices to overthrow the constitutional government of Syria.

However Erdogan's maverick populist Turkey,has gone one better and has provided an unexpected twist in the Pentagon/State Department plot scenario which brings us to the edge of the current and immediate precipice.

The oft-garlanded,heroic/noble/virtuous Kurds whom the US cozened into carrying out the Neocons' strategic foreign policy objectives ,find themselves facing the pent up ire of the Turkish state on their own.

And this has provided the pseudo-moral motivation of the Liberal ( foreign interventionist but only in a good way and for humanitarian ends) outrage.

Will all this end badly for all concerned?

It already has.

fahrenheit451:198

The trouble with hornets' nests is that the more you kick them the angrier the hornets get and if you decide that the best option once you've agitated the hornets is to keep on kicking their nest even harder,well ..

The Barzani led Kurdish provincial regime in Iraq has held what they've  asserted to be a non-binding advisory referendum on the question of Kurdish secession.

This mendacious sectarian political manoeuvre has caused a great deal of apprehension in Iraq itself but also amongst neighbouring countries including,Turkey and Iran. Turkey in particular has endured a decades long  Kurdish PKK led campaign of terrorism against the Turkish state.

Were all that not enough, the Kurdistan Question/dynamic is enveloped inside and now inextricably bound up with a quasi-regional/global conflict surrounding  ISIS/DAESH and all of its implications and possible consequences.

It is worth reiterating that Russia ,Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah are assisting the legitimate,constitutional government of Syria at that government's request.

 The United States and its various NATO satrapies are in  gross violation of International Law by in effect invading Syria.

The anti-government ( largely Syrian-Kurd led ) SDF - heavily supplied and supported by the US - are in the throes of making a grab for Deir Ezzor city and province and are clashing with the Syrian Arab Army and its Russian allies amongst others.

 The recent targeted assassination in the field of Russian Lt.General Asapov and two of his Colonels has added yet another twist to an already volatile situation.

South Front  reported online:-

" Russia will not allow the United States as well as any other foreign power to limit an area of operations of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) in Syria’s Deir Ezzor province, Deputy Foreign Minister Oleg Syromolotov announced on  29 September

Syromolotov added that the Russian military has informed the United States about the area of the SAA operation against ISIS and will not tolerate US attempts to slow down the liquidation of terrorists in Syria.

The diplomat emphasized that the situation when some power that operates in Syria without any legitimate right attempts to limit government forces efforts to liberate their country from the terrorism is nonsense.

He also described the US-led coalition’s air campaign as questionable saying that it has led to a full-scale humanitarian crisis in Raqqah city. "

Raqqah , the former ISIS/Daesh capital  is currently in the throes being  " liberated " by the SDF.

Clearly the best resolution lies with Russia ,Turkey and Iran relinquishing their petty antagonisms and isolating the US western imperialist block from all substantive future  undertakings to bring the conflict to a close.

POSTSCRIPT ( Added 30 September )

Lo,and behold the hornets' nest just got another kicking..

South Front reports -

The Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) will declare an independence of Iraqi Kurdistan unilaterally, if the Iraqi Federal Government does not enter negotiations on the terms and condictions of this move, Vahal Ali, director of communications in the office of Kurdistan Region President Massoud Barzani said on September 29 https://southfront.org/iraqi-kurdistan-to-declare-independ…/